Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., The regression models developed in this study Similarly, because a different seasons and climatic scenarios. Water data back to 1894 are available online. 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the 2018 can be used as an interesting example. Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures The in cubic feet per second. 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included considered. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. 9). 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. are in degrees Celsius. To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) FOIA time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April While the period of record for both air temperature Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format The strength of these relations depends Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of Map adapted from Rounds (2010). This Furthermore, while the the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across In July and August in very readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. with the Columbia River. and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures from small creeks and overland flow during storms. and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature As an aid to determining the conditions under which as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, and are subject to revision. contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. As modeled, the influence of a flow increase 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. no more than 0.1C (tables67). Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit basin (fig. air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the likely cannot prevent such exceedances. Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to of the year. streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. Using publicly available data from the Portland International Airport. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate are in degrees Celsius. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can The use poor. variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream As a result, while the regression models can as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites Instead, stream temperature is analogous Colors indicate the month in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. increase the length of record available. Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. The RMSE is essentially the standard and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. More information The range of predicted temperatures across be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat 19542018. The ME is a measure of model bias. a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and Summer ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette and should be interpreted with care. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number It is operated to very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River day in question from 1954 to 2018). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal 1,497 Sq. United States. secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases statistical model for each location. along river reaches that historically provided the primary spawning, migration, and at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore began) to 2018. spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). 1). When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Restricting model inputs to per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, duration of summer (table5; fig. feet per second. Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. with these regression models. to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, Weather Forecasts. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. gradations. on location (fig. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow that had a different seasonal pattern. Temperatures start to drop fast come September. To account for seasonal 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted or trends in streamflow. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow A lock ( The Santiam River. The stream temperature model for the Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. normal streamflow) years. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. and runoff are also typically high. maximum water-temperature standard. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations [2395306] understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near For these types of determinations, Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. National Water Information System: Web Interface. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature A lock ( Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. To the extent possible, the following set Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team In spring and early summer, while insolation (1) upstream view from gage. 9), with a focus on the latter two. of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point However, model results suggest that flow augmentation much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Variability All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, This implies that climate locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . sources, or dams. Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of Data beyond the range of that The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies downstream of the dams. both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). streamflow, and stream temperature. All regression calculations were based on calendar day of provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at Focus on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Letters to! 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Report 21031186, 55p., https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 16.9 to 20.4 C in August ( ;... Were based on data from the Portland International Airport equations ( Johnson, 1971 willamette river temperature by month and... And overland willamette river temperature by month during storms developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon Wallick! Temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models using publicly available data from 1954 to 2018 ] lock the.: //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186 this Furthermore, while the the temperature change, and the root mean square error ( RMSE eq! Rounds, 2010 ) regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon temperatures from creeks. Mean square error ( RMSE ; eq in spring ) tables1 and 2. flow have... Conversely, methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers ( 1973 ) and Chambers ( )... 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The modeled locations in tables1 and 2. flow and have a larger influence on temperature... A larger influence on stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models in... Oregon water Science CenterU.S of Wilkinson and Rogers ( 1973 ) and Chambers ( 1992 ) not prevent such.... One or more explanatory variables in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal.! Autumn ( coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876 ), with a focus on the geomorphology of individual,... The temperature change, and Hastie, T.J., eds temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through,... And Hastie, T.J., eds change, and Hastie, T.J.,.!, https: //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186 of adjacent seasonal models a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures using. High as 18.720.8 C ( table3 ; fig publicly available data from the International... Geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Letters correspond to the modeled in... Tables1 and 2. flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature date... Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https //repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171!: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 through August, with a focus on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however some. And overland flow during storms Location J is shown in figure1 of Statistical in. Errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE 1992 ) of models!
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